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Market specialists have voiced significant caution regarding optimistic claims that US large firms will swiftly commit billions of dollars to revive the country's crumbling oil infrastructure.

Demand for Absolute Assurances

Without an “iron-clad guarantee” of financial backing from the Washington, experts believe multinational oil companies to act with great care.

“It seems too early to discuss any upcoming plans,” an official said in response.

The aggressive timeframe of less than 18 months has been boldly outlined. However, expert analyses indicate a more cautious outlook.

A Probable Schedule

“Chances are going to take multiple years for any kind of production bounce,” said an chief investment officer.

Experts believe oil companies would likely spend:

• The first year: Sorting through new operating agreements.
• Year two: Investing in reconstruction of infrastructure.
• Year three: Reaching a position to boost production.

This would lead to an boost of around 500,000 bpd possibly by the end of the decade.

Appetite Compared to Readiness for Spending

Experts make a key distinction between companies' curiosity and their readiness to commit significantly.

“I think their interest is an high score, on a range of one to 10. However, their readiness is a four or five, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Veteran operators in the region reinforce this caution. The thinking is that firms will politically express enthusiasm while actually moving with deliberate slowness.

The Colossal Price Tag

The monetary investment would be colossal. University estimates suggest that adding between half a million and a million barrels per day would require more than $10 billion in capital spending over several years.

Yet, restoring production to previous levels of around 2.5 million bpd could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Unanswered Issue of Taxpayer Funding

The suggestion of energy companies being compensated by the federal government has been repeatedly floated. But, formal assurances on this proposal have so far not been announced.

Without clarity is the main factor for the industry's caution. Operators seek protection against political risk and the possibility that a future president could renege on any deal.

“You need to be shielded from political change, that we’ve seen in Venezuela previously.”

Ultimately, while political promises runs strong, the operational risks suggest a road of slow deliberation for any significant venture in the country's oil sector.