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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.